AFSA Enables Testing of Event-Based Contracts in the AIFC FinTech Lab 

The Astana Financial Services Authority (AFSA) has introduced a legal basis for testing Event-Based Contracts by posting the Notice on the Expected Approach to this market within the Astana International Financial Centre (available here). This initiative by the AIFC regulator will explore the feasibility of introducing a dynamically developing derivatives market sector previously unavailable in the region. Testing will be held only within the AIFC FinTech Lab, ensuring new products are tested in a controlled regulatory environment. 

Evgeniya Bogdanova, Chief Executive Officer of AFSA, said: “Event-based markets are an emerging area of financial innovation internationally. By enabling the testing of these products within the FinTech Lab, we can assess their potential in a controlled environment while maintaining market integrity. Our approach is deliberately focused on financial and economic events. The FinTech Lab gives AFSA an opportunity to work closely with market participants, understand new business models and risks as they develop, and use the results of testing to inform the future regulatory approach.”   

Event-Based Contracts are derivative instruments whose payout depends on whether a specified future event occurs or does not occur. It is an established and rapidly developing segment of global financial markets, providing market participants with an additional instrument to express views on, and in certain cases manage exposure to, the outcomes of future events. Their scope has expanded significantly in recent years, covering areas ranging from macroeconomic indicators and monetary policy decisions to political, technological and other measurable real-world events. 

For example, the United States of America represents one of the most developed regulated markets for event contracts. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has recognised event contracts within the US derivatives regulatory framework for decades, with regulated markets dating back to the early 1990s. Today, CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Markets can list event contracts subject to the requirements of the Commodity Exchange Act and applicable CFTC regulations. The range of products available on regulated US venues has continued to expand and includes contracts linked to GDP, inflation, interest-rate decisions, elections, cryptocurrency prices, and other objectively verifiable outcomes.  

The market has also experienced significant growth in trading activity. According to a Pew Research Center analysis, combined monthly trading volume on two of the world’s largest prediction market platforms increased from less than USD 5 billion in September 2025 to approximately USD 24 billion in April 2026. This growth reflects increasing market interest in event-based instruments as a new category of financial products and information-discovery tools. 

The continued development of regulated event-contract markets demonstrates a broader global trend towards financial instruments that transform expectations about future events into transparent, market-based prices. Alongside their investment applications, such markets can contribute to price discovery and provide real-time, market-derived assessments of the probability of future outcomes. The introduction of a regulated framework for Event-Based Contracts within the AIFC therefore reflects the evolution of international financial markets and creates an institutional environment in which this emerging asset class can develop under appropriate regulatory standards. 

Under AFSA’s approach, contracts tested in the FinTech Lab may reference financial and economic events only. Permitted underlying events include movements in the prices of securities and securities indices, approved digital assets, commodities and commodity indices, interest rates and exchange rates, as well as scheduled releases of macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, GDP and employment data, and central bank rate decisions. 

Event-Based Contracts related to non-financial or non-economic events fall outside the permitted scope. For example, sporting and political events, weather events, entertainment and celebrity-related events are generally prohibited. 

Testing will be available only within the AIFC FinTech Lab. AFSA will assess applications individually using a risk-based approach, taking into account the proposed product, business model and the applicant’s capabilities and resources. 

Event-Based Contracts may be offered only to Professional Clients and eligible Semi-professional Clients who have passed the required appropriateness assessment. They will not be available to the general retail public. Individual clients must be at least 21 years old. 

The framework also provides a range of safeguards. Event-Based Contracts must be fully collateralised, and margin or leverage is not permitted. Testing Firms must provide clients with clear information about the product and its risks and obtain acknowledgement that the client understands the binary, all-or-nothing nature of the contract before trading. 

AFSA will also apply market abuse and financial crime requirements to Event-Based Contract activities. Testing Firms will be required to maintain appropriate systems and controls to identify and prevent market abuse and financial crime. 

The FinTech Lab allows AFSA to monitor testing arrangements, including contract specifications, client profiles and transactions. AFSA may impose or amend conditions and limits, restrict particular products or require testing to cease where risks to clients, market integrity or AFSA’s regulatory objectives arise. 

Reference:  

The Astana Financial Services Authority (AFSA) is the independent regulator of the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), established in accordance with the Constitutional Law of the Republic of Kazakhstan “On the Astana International Financial Centre” for the purposes of regulating financial services and related activities in the AIFC. AFSA administers the AIFC Regulations and Rules and is responsible for the authorisation, registration, recognition, and supervision of financial firms and market institutions in the AIFC. afsa.kz   

The Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) is an independent jurisdiction where investors and businesses meet emerging opportunities of Kazakhstan and Central Asia in a transparent and sustainable environment backed by the principles of English Common Law. aifc.kz  

Public Relations and Communications Division of AFSA, [email protected]